I don't feel confident about any of these except Spacek.
Marion Cotillard - Inception
Julianne Moore - The Kids Are All Right
Sissy Spacek - Get Low
Saoirse Ronan - The Way Back
Keira Knightley - Never Let Me Go
I could easily score only 1/5 though I think Moore is also a strong possibility.
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James, I figured I could ask you without being ridiculed too much in this film blog community we are in!
ReplyDeleteHow do people predict the Oscars for 2011 if the movies haven't yet been released? I'm totally naive when it comes to such things. I just usually watch them with fingers crossed and on the edge of my seat...
Hehe, it's a totally logical question.
ReplyDeleteOscar predicting at this point is just crazy and that is part of what makes it fun for many people.
We look at the names involved (director, actors etc), the premise of the movie, even the release date.
For example, Streep for Doubt was an easy prediction because
1) They nominate her all the time
2) The play on which the movie was based was very popular
3) The role was very meaty
One of the advantages of predicting this early is that you feel really smart if you manage to guess even one name correctly :p
However, there are some films that have already been seen by some people. The Kids Are Allright, Get Low and I have read reactions on The Way Back and Never Let Me Go though I'm not sure they're reliable.
That's pretty fun. So, to get a list going, do people just google "movies to be released in 2010?" That makes sense to look at directors, actors, etc.
ReplyDeleteDo you find that your predictions stand up well come the next year?
I've got this thought about whether or not people should make their Oscar list based on the reality of the choice - meaning big names, big movies. Or if they should also make a list based on movies/actors they think should win an Academy Award, regardless of the amount on money made, having a big actor, etc. Or do the oscars usually pick smaller movies with good performances?
'Once' won an Oscar for Best Original Song in 2008. That really seems to be what I look for...nods from the Academy to smaller, passionate films for a job well done in the face of an 'Avatar' world.
I'm so glad you think like that! This is exactly what the Oscars should do. Reward quality movies that don't have huge marketing power behind them. It usually doesn't happen. The Academy might not give awards to stupid action films but it often gives awards to serious-looking but empty films.
ReplyDeleteI can't really say whether I'm a good prognosticator or not because this is the first time I do it. And I actually don't like it much. There are many people with experience in this area who do a great job. I was about to write a post predicting the Best Picture nominees but I couldn't think anything other than the obvious titles so I decided not to do it.
Regarding your question on the predicting method, it's certainly the "big" (director, actors etc even cinematographer) that is the most important thing. Of course they don't always reward that kind of movies, but you can't start by predicting the indies and you certainly can't predict based on what you think deserves to win since you can't know and even if you did, it would be wishful thinking and not predicting. There are exceptions of course. You throw one name you'd like to see nominated and you call it a wild card :p
Since you seem to be the only commenter at the moment (Burning Reels, where are you? :p), what would you be interested in reading? I was annoyed by my dropping the predictions post so I want to write something else (that wouldn't include any list-making) instead.
That's fascinating about the prediction part of the movie world. I shall observe it and see how it's done.
ReplyDeleteI am a commenter. I really enjoy conversation with interesting people. Especially while I'm working...which I am at the moment. I'm delirous with boredom so reading interesting things and talking to people really lifts my mood!
Well, now free reign on post choice, that's great! I would enjoy reading about:
Your favortie childhood movie and why it is so
How you got into predicting the Oscars
Why you love film
Your thoughts on LOST
Or anything, really, that you care to talk about. Even about the type of weather you enjoy, the most memorable vacation you've had or a debate over tea or coffee.
Yeah, Burning Reels! :P
Haha i'm here guys...
ReplyDeleteSorry work and other plans have gotten in the way lately;)
The Oscar predicting game is so fun yet also so frustrating. I don't mean the getting it right/wrong part - I mean the bullshit the precursor awards and also some bloggers throw up - it's become so samey and catty.
I think James would agree with me, if you want fun, information and one or two correct predictions, Nathaniel Rogers is your man.
Be nice if Julianne is back - I think after the A Single Man near-miss, she should have a very decent chance even if the performance is merely solid (by her standards).
You really came back at the right time! I need to not think about the.. no, I'm not going to think about it!
ReplyDeleteI am actually kind of happy Moore was not nominated for A Single Man. I didn't think she did anything special. I want her to be nominated and win for something great.
And yes, Nathaniel is the best by a mile!